Bitcoin Stuck in Consolidation! What's next?
Bitcoin slipped into an $ 18,500 tech support area last week, where there was once again a slight demand response. Rejecting this zone could contribute to a slight increase in BTC towards USD 20,650.
However, considering that the second half of October promises to be relatively calm regarding the publication of macroeconomic data, it seems highly probable that Bitcoin will remain within the next two weeks in the range observed since mid-September this year. Consolidation, i.e. between the support of $ 18,500 and the resistance in the region of $ 20,650 and measuring the 50% Fibonacci retracement from an earlier downturn.
The catalyst for higher volatility may be the meeting of the Federal Committee for Open Market Operations (FOMC) scheduled for November 2.
Given the positive US labour market data presented in the October 7 Nonfarm Payrolls report and last week's inflation readings, it seems highly probable that the Fed will raise interest rates for the fourth time in a row by 75 basis points in November.
The report published last Thursday shows that consumer inflation (CPI) in the United States in September this year amounted to. as much as 8.2%, which means it decreased by only 0.1 percentage point from 8.3 per cent reported in August this year.
As if that were not enough, core inflation, which the Fed pays special attention to, increased to 6.6% from 6.3%, which speaks for a further aggressive tightening of monetary policy, which could ultimately contribute to the renewed depreciation of BTC.
Ethereum fell by almost 32% between September 11 and 21, 2022, beating technical support of $ 1,425. This sell-off only stopped in the next support area of USD 1,245, where on September 22 this year, there was a slight demand reaction.
Since then, this cryptocurrency has been moving horizontally between support in the $ 1,245 region and resistance of $ 1,425. Given that this is a form of a temporary rebound after previous declines and that the upper bound of this system coincides with the measurement of the 38.2% Fibonacci correction from an earlier downward move, it seems highly probable that after the end of this correction, ETH will return on a downward path and will slide to the region of $ 1,000, or even further to $ 800.
It is worth mentioning here, however, that there is no rule for how long a market can remain in consolidation. It can be estimated that the ETH rate will remain within this consolidation until November 2, when the next Federal Reserve meeting will occur.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
In line with our last week's projection, Bitcoin Cash slumped by almost 18% between October 6-13, beating technical support of $ 112.
Although BCH has experienced some upward rebound in recent days, it seems highly likely that it will only be a form of temporary correction, after which the price of this cryptocurrency will return to the down path and slide to the area of another support located at $ 97.
Before that happens, however, the BCH rate could test from below the recently broken support (as a resistance) of 112 USD. However, considering that this level coincides with the measurement of the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the earlier downward impulse, a greater supply pressure may be expected in its vicinity, initiating another downward impulse.
Litecoin's quotations have been held since September 18 this year. Inside the ascending right triangle formation, from which the market recently broke through the low. If the upward rebound observed since Sunday continues, the LTC could test from below the recently broken upward trend line, which is the lower boundary of this triangle.
However, a rebound from this resistance could drive further declines, for which the USD 47 and 42 seem to be the actual ranges. It is there that the two closest support levels are located.
In line with our last week's projection, Solana's stock fell below the USD 30 technical support, breaking the low from August 19. consolidation.
If only the downward trend continues, the price of this cryptocurrency could fall to the area of the June lows, i.e. USD 26. It is also worth noting that it would be one of the lowest levels since July 2021.
The Avalanche cryptocurrency prices fell between October 6 and 13 this year by over 18%. This sell-off defeated the technical support of $ 16.50, which was also the lower bound since September 18 this year. Consolidation, which we have already mentioned, among others, last week.
We also pointed out then that this tendency was only a form of correction, noting that a breakout from it would contribute to testing another support of USD 14.50.
Looking at the chart below, we can see that this projection has already materialized.
Given the demand reaction that appeared around USD 14.50, we could expect a continuation of the upward rebound towards USD 16.50 soon.
However, if supply pressure reappears in this resistance, the AVAX rate could once again slide down to USD 14.50.
Looking at the EOS quotes, we notice that the price of this cryptocurrency fell between October 1 and 13 this year by almost 24%, reaching $ 0.94 at one point. Over the past few days, however, there has been a slight demand reaction here, and if only these increases continue, the EOS rate could return to the area of previously made support (now resistance) of USD 1.15.
If there is more significant supply pressure around this resistance, one should be prepared for further declines towards USD 0.88.
In line with our last week's projection, Chainlink's stock has recently slipped into the upward trend line. A considerable demand reaction appeared a few days ago in the vicinity of this support. If the currently observed increases continue, the LINK rate could soon return to the horizontal resistance area of USD 8.10.