Weekly Crypto Market Analysis with Geco.one 07.03.2022
When bitcoin price soared by more than $ 11,000 (over 32%) due to the Russian invasion on Ukraine, some industry experts attributed this increase to Russians buying cryptocurrencies in the face of rising economic sanctions.
However, this theory seems to be false, as Chainalysis data shows that the trading volume of cryptocurrencies denominated in Russian Rubles on the 3rd of March 2022 was just $ 34.1 million, down by about half from the last high of $ 70.7 million a week ago as recorded on the 24th of February 2022.
Commenting on the sanctions-driven cryptocurrency purchases, Citigroup analyst Alexander Saunders admitted that Russian volumes have been relatively small so far, suggesting that price action is due to investors positioning themselves for the expected rise in demand from Russia rather than from Russian demand itself.
That also meant that we have been seeing declines again for several days, and there are many indications that this trend will continue in the near future. If this projection is confirmed, the BTC price could return to the area of the last lows, i.e. $ 35,000.
A permanent defeat of this support, in turn, would threaten a further sell-off towards $ 30,000.
We could also expect potential declines in the near future on the quotations of Ethereum. The price rebounded from the downward trend line. It also makes it highly probable that in the next few days, the ETH rate will return to the region of $ 2,350, and a possible permanent defeat of this support would signal a potential for further depreciation towards $ 1,750.
Looking at the Bitcoin Cash quotes, we will notice that the price of this cryptocurrency from the 21st of January this year remains on the horizontal trend between $ 275 and $ 350. It is worth noting that these types of patterns are usually corrective circuits, which means that statistically, more often, the market breaks out of them in the direction consistent with the previous move. It also means that considering that the earlier move was down in this particular case, the risk of a bottom breakout, i.e. a drop of the BCH price rate below $ 275, increases statistically, which could drive a further sell-off towards $ 175.
The current situation on the Solana quotation is also similar, the price of which has returned to the area of technical support of $ 80. A permanent descent below this level could pose a risk of a further depreciation towards $ 40. It is only there that another significant support is found, in the vicinity of which a greater demand response could appear, signalling any rebound.
We could expect a continuation of declines in the near future also on litecoin, the price of which has remained inside the parallel downward channel formation for a long time.
However, considering the relatively small demand reaction that appeared on the 24th of February this year near the lower bound of this system, it can be assumed that the market will try to break out of it with the bottom, which could drive a further depreciation.
You can find more comments on the cryptocurrencies described above and an analysis of the additional cryptos in the market review from Geco One on Comparic Markets TV.