Weekly crypto-market analysis from Geco.one 28.06.2021
The price of Bitcoin has fallen to the area of technical support of $30,000 in recent days. It was there, last weekend, that the demand response appeared. If only the increases have been taking place since Saturday, the BTC rate could rise to around $42,000. However, this is still a short-term perspective, which does not eliminate the risk of further BTC drops even to about $20,000 in the medium term.
Looking at the 4-hour interval, we can see that the BTC price is currently testing the local resistance, which is the downtrend line being the upper bound of the downtrend channel.
Only a permanent break of this level could open the way for further increases in the area of $40,800 – $42,200. In practice, only a permanent break above this zone could change the general market attitude and open the way to more significant increases in the long term.
It is still worth remembering that the BTC rate from May 19 this year remains horizontal, with resistance around $42,000 being its upper limit.
From a technical point of view, one should not forget that consolidations are corrective formations, which in practice means that the market is more likely to break out of them in the direction of the earlier impulse.
In this particular case, therefore, it increases the supply pressure. At least statistically, a possible bottom breakout, i.e. a drop below $30,000, seems more likely, which in practice could open the way for further depreciation, even below $20,000.
As mentioned above, only a permanent break of over $42,000 could change the market’s attitude to growth and prevent further sell-off. For now, however, it seems unlikely in the near future.
The thesis about a directional breakout from the consolidation is confirmed by the current situation on the Ethereum quotations, the price of which has been moving horizontally between $2300 and $2600 until recently.
However, subsequent declines resulted in a breakthrough from this formation, and subsequent declines stopped at around $1,750. Since then, we have again witnessed an emerging consolidation, the upper bound of which is now a tested resistance of $2050 and measured at 38.2 per cent — Fibonacci correction from an earlier downward impulse.
If this zone is rejected again, the price of ETH could drop to the region of $1,750, $1,580, or even to $1,400.
If ETH broke the currently tested resistance, then we could expect a continuation of increases towards $2,280. Further resistances are found at $2,620 and $2,900.
Bitcoin Cash has recently plunged below $500 technical support (now resistance). For several days now, the BCH rate has fluctuated slightly below this level. It is worth noting, however, that this resistance coincides with the measurement of 38.2 times. Fibonacci corrections. Therefore, if there is a more significant supply response in its vicinity, the BCH price could drop to around $270.
The current situation on Litecoin quotes is also quite similar, as the rate has recently slipped below the technical support of $160 and $142. These declines only stopped around $120, where there was a slight demand response a few days ago.
Even if the price of LTC rises to any of the recently breached support levels of $142 or $160 over the next few days, such an increase could only be a form of correction, at the end of which the price of the cryptocurrency could return to declines for which Even around $95 seem to be accurate ranges. It is worth noting that both of the levels, as mentioned earlier, coincide with significant Fibonacci measurements.
There are also too many reasons for optimism in the XRP, the rate of which has recently slipped below the technical support (now resistance) of $0.70. Since then, cryptocurrency prices have remained relatively stable, consolidating slightly below the level mentioned above. If only this zone is rejected, the XRP price could drop even to the vicinity of $0.36.