Weekly crypto market analysis with Geco.one 30.08.2021
The price of bitcoin increased between 20 July and 23 August this year by almost $ 21,200, over 72 per cent. Such a significant appreciation meant that the exchange rate of the oldest virtual currencies broke several critical resistance zones and was temporarily above $ 50,000, which was the highest level since mid-May this year.
However, the BTC price did not stay at this level for too long. For several days it has been fluctuating slightly below this zone, creating a correction which is a kind of market rebound after earlier increases.
In a pessimistic scenario, one cannot rule out that this correction could lead to a decline in the BTC price even close to the recently defeated resistance (now support), i.e. $ 42,200. However, considering that this level coincides with the measurement of 38.2 per cent — Fibonacci correction from the entire previous upward movement, it seems highly probable that there will be a more significant demand response even if this happens.
Therefore, it turns out that while the short-term outlook shows some downside potential, the medium-term projections remain pro-growth. It is still highly probable that the resistance of $ 53,000 and then $ 60,000 will be tested, or even a new ATH will be broken above $ 65,000 before the end of 2021.
Looking at the Ethereum quotations, we notice that after increases by over $ 1,600, i.e. almost 94%, which we observed between 20 July and 13 August this year, the price of this cryptocurrency is moving in a horizontal trend between the recently defeated resistance (now support) for $ 2,900, and the resistance was in the region of $ 3,325.
Given that these patterns tend to serve as corrections after the winding market returns to an earlier trend, statistically, there is a greater likelihood of the ETH breaking out of the current consolidation upwards. If that happens, its price could go up to $ 3,600 or around $ 4,200. It is also possible that Ethereum will set a new all-time record above this resistance before the end of this year.
However, this carries the fact that as long as the market stays within the consolidation, there is a short-term risk of falling to the lower limit of $ 2,900.
Similarly to the ETH, the current situation on Litecoin also looks, the rate of which has also remained for some time between technical support of $ 163 and resistance in the region of $ 185.
Given that this is a form of market correction after earlier increases, statistically, it’s more likely to break out of this formation and continue appreciation to $ 215, $ 280, or even $ 330.
Even if the LTC rate broke the bottom from the current consolidation, it would not necessarily mean a return to many months of declines. Such a break could only extend the potential range of the correction to $ 146. It is significant support, which very precisely coincides with the measurement of 50% — Fibonacci corrections from an earlier upward move.
Therefore, it turns out that while the short-term outlook shows some downside potential, the medium-term projections remain pro-growth.
XRP quotations also persist in the consolidation, although much more extensive. The price of this cryptocurrency increased between 20 July and 15 August this year by over 161 per cent. Such a significant appreciation led to overcoming two critical resistance zones of $ 0.77 and $ 1.05.
As a result of subsequent declines, the recently defeated zone was re-tested, which now is significant support. Because the supply relationship has already appeared there twice, it can be assumed that this zone will be the target level of the depth of the correction.
This fact means that the market could try to break from the current consolidation upwards (above $ 1.29), which in turn would open the way for further appreciation of XRP to around $ 1.66.