Will Bitcoin Fall Below $ 18,500?

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin has been running since mid-September this year in a horizontal trend between the support of $ 18,500 and the resistance in the region of $ 20,650 and measuring the 50% Fibonacci retracement from an earlier downward impulse.

Considering that the end of October promises to be relatively calm on the global financial markets regarding important macroeconomic data releases, it seems highly probable that BTC will remain in the range mentioned above for the next 1.5 weeks.

The catalyst for higher volatility may be the meeting of the Federal Committee for Open Market Operations (FOMC) scheduled for November 2nd.

Given the positive US labour market data presented in the October 7th Nonfarm Payrolls report and last week's inflation readings, it seems highly probable that the Fed will raise interest rates for the fourth time in a row by 75 basis points in November.

The report published October 13th this year shows that consumer inflation (CPI) in the United States in September amounted to as much as 8.2%, which means it decreased by only 0.1 percentage point from 8.3 per cent reported in August this year.

As if that were not enough, core inflation, which the Fed pays special attention to, increased to 6.6% from 6.3%, which speaks for a further aggressive tightening of monetary policy, which could ultimately contribute to the renewed depreciation of BTC.

The assumptions of classic technical analysis also support this scenario. Consolidation, i.e. the pattern that we have been observing on Bitcoin for over five weeks, is perceived as a correction system from which the market breaks more often in the direction consistent with the earlier move. So, if, in this case, we had previously seen declines, statistically, there is a greater probability that BTC will fall below $ 18,500, which in turn could drive further depreciation.

Ethereum (ETH)

The current situation on the Ethereum quotes is also very similar, the price of which has been in the horizontal trend for a long time. In this case, its lower bound is at the support of around USD 1,250, and the upper resistance is around USD 1,425.

Considering that this is a pattern seen as a form of temporary rebound after previous declines and that the upper bound of this pattern coincides with measuring 38.2% of the Fibonacci retracement from an earlier downward move, it seems highly probable that after this correction is completed, the ETH exchange rate will return to the downward path and will slide down to the region of USD 1,000, or even further to USD 800.

It is worth mentioning here, however, that there is no rule for how long a market can remain in consolidation. One can estimate that the ETH rate will remain within this consolidation until November 2nd when the next Federal Reserve meeting will occur.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH)

Bitcoin Cash has been operating since mid-October this year in a horizontal trend, the upper bound of which is marked by the recently broken support (now resistance) of $ 112. If only the market rebounds from this level, the price of this cryptocurrency could return to the downward path and slide even to the  ​​June and July lows, i.e. to USD 97.

Potential declines are also supported by the fact that the current consolidation is in the form of a correction after previous declines, which naturally increases the probability that BCH will slide even lower after the rebound.

Litecoin (LTC)

Litecoin's quotations have been held since September 18th in the ascending right-angled triangle formation, from which the market is still knocked down in the first half of October this year.

Over the last few days, however, the LTC rate has increased by over 12%, thus re-testing the previously broken upward trend line, which is the lower boundary of the above triangle.

However, a rebound from this resistance could drive further declines, for which the USD 47 and 42 seem to be the actual ranges. It is there that the two closest support levels are located.

Solana (SOL)

The re-test of the recently defeated support (now resistance) is also currently observed on the Solana quotes. In this case, it is in the $ 29.50, close to the downward trend.

A rebound from this ceiling could trigger another downward impulse towards USD 26. It is also worth noting that it would be one of the lowest levels since July 2021.

Avalanche (AVAX)

Looking at the Avalanche quotes, we notice that, in line with our last week's projection, the cryptocurrency rate has recently rebounded from technical support by $ 14.50, then increased by 12.5%, thus returning to the area of ​​previously defeated support (now resistance) in the region of USD 16.50.

If the currently tested resistance is discarded in the near future, the AVAX price could nevertheless return to the path of decline and slide back to the region of $ 14.50 or even further below $ 10.

Binance Coin (BNB)

Binance Coin has been trading since the second half of August this year. In a horizontal trend between the support of $ 262 and the resistance in the region of $ 297. It is worth noting that within this consolidation, a second, smaller one has recently emerged, the upper limit of which is marked by local resistance around USD 276.

The common features of both of these systems are their lower bound, marked by the support of $ 262 and the fact that both of these consolidations are corrective formations after previous declines, which increases the likelihood of a breakout from them down, which in turn could naturally drive a further BNB sell-off in towards USD 244, or even USD 214.

EOS

Looking at the EOS quotes, we notice that the price of this cryptocurrency fell between October 1 and 13 this year by almost 24%, reaching $ 0.94 at one point. Over the last few days, however, there has been a slight demand reaction here, and if only these increases continue, the EOS rate could return to the area of ​​earlier made support (now resistance) in the amount of USD 1.15.

However, the small dynamics of this rebound may indicate that it is only a temporary correction, after which the price of this cryptocurrency will return to the downward path. If that happens, it could fall as low as $ 0.88.

Chainlink (LINK)

Chainlink's quotations have recently slipped to an upward trend line and horizontal support of USD 6.65. A slight demand reaction appeared a few days ago in the vicinity of this support.

It is worth noting, however, that each of the last three rebounds from this level, which we observed in the second half of September this year and in the first half of October this year. And now it was getting smaller.

This may indicate a weakening demand pressure, increasing the probability of overcoming this support. If that happens, LINK could fall as low as $ 5.90.

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